Seasons like this one have been sufficient to keep afloat coaches under long-term contract at Penn State. And there’ve been plenty of them.
Back in 2009-10, Ed DeChellis’ Nittany Lions lost 12 games by single-digit margins on the way to an 11-20 (3-16 Big Ten) season. But he still had a year left on his contract, was coming off an NIT championship (the sort of thing that’s worth capital in State College) and so he was kept aboard. And then his 2011 team went to the NCAA tournament – the last PSU team to play in one.
In a nearly identical scenario, Pat Chambers’ 2018-19 Penn State team topped even that with 13 single-digit losses, including three in overtime, on the way to a 14-18 (7-14 B1G) season. But his team also was coming off an NIT championship and he’d been signed to a new contract the spring prior. So, he was kept around as well. And like DeChellis’ before him, Chambers’ team had a bounce-back year in 2020 and would have clearly made the NCAAs were it not for the onset of COVID.
Interestingly, neither coach was around soon after his NCAA-qualifying season. DeChellis left in disgust for Navy after a failed effort at a contract extension. Chambers was effectively dismissed after an internal investigation, substantive details of which were sealed from public view by the university.
Jim Ferry does not possess even the limited leverage of his predecessors. He’s an interim coach installed only because Penn State decided to force out Chambers. And so, he’s easy to eject even though his 2020-21 Nittany Lions are, at least from a metrics standpoint, the equal of either one of those PSU predecessors.
After Sunday evening’s 74-68 loss at Iowa, a game they led by 7 with 14 minutes to go, the current Lions are 7-12 (4-11 B1G) with four scheduled conference contests remaining plus the Big Ten tournament. If games only lasted 37 minutes, the Nits would be 12-7, (8-7 B1G) and solidly in the NCAA field of 68. They’ve led with under 3:00 to go in five of their losses. They’ve led in the second half in all but three of their 19 games and would’ve led in two of the others but for opponent halftime-buzzer-beaters.
Had they won merely three of those games – not the winnable ones against heavy-hitters they led inside 2:00 (@Michigan, @Ohio State) but just, say, the ones that came down to the final possession against also-rans, @Indiana (85-87, OT), @Michigan State (58-60) and Nebraska (61-62) – the Lions would now be very much odds-on for the NCAAs, according to top bracketologists Jerry Palm and Joe Lunardi.
And NCAA selection metrics would be their ally had they simply won those three. Penn State’s schedule strength grades out #2 in the nation according to Ken Pomeroy’s predictive site (KenPom.com). The computers love the Big Ten so much this year that the schedule strengths of all 14 conference clubs are ranked in the national top 20 among the 347 taking part in Division I play.
Despite its losing record, Penn State is ranked as the #34 team nationally by KenPom and at #40 by the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET). You must descend another 24 spots in the NET rankings to find another team with a losing record (#64 Kentucky).
So close, but so far for Ferry whose retention prospects now must be considered close to nil barring a minor-miracle finish. PSU athletic director Sandy Barbour has said she hopes to have the search for a permanent coach wrapped up very soon after the Lions’ season is complete.
They play at Nebraska tomorrow (Tuesday) night in a game recently rescheduled from a COVID cancellation, followed by Purdue (Friday), Minnesota (Mar. 3) and @Maryland (Mar. 7) before the Big Ten tournament first round begins Mar. 10 in Indianapolis. A postponed game against Michigan has not been rescheduled.
More PennLive sports coverage:
• The Stat Mine: Grading new Penn State OC Mike Yurcich during stints at Oklahoma State and Texas.
• As blueblood coaches and programs age and fade, who can fill their shoes and win March Madness?
• Good luck to Frank Reich and Colts in their 12-step rehab of Carson Wentz; they’re gonna need it.
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February 23, 2021 at 02:02AM
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Though PSU kept Ed DeChellis and Pat Chambers after many close losses, Jim Ferry can’t expect same luck - PennLive
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