FIRST ALERT WEATHER DAY: Winter storm still on track, though impacts to start later than expected - WIFR

tutobatod.blogspot.com

ROCKFORD, Ill. (WIFR) - Winter storms are often notoriously difficult to predict, given their intensely complex nature, and the countless seemingly small intricacies that can significantly alter a forecast. Regarding the unfolding storm Monday night into Tuesday, one of the variables with which we were most concerned, was the amount of dry air that would need to be overcome to have a major snow event. It became increasingly clear Monday morning that there could be a rather significant amount of dry air in place, and that it could have an impact on just how much snow we might see. That’s indeed how things are playing out Monday evening, though we’re by no means out of the woods. In fact, there are many spots where it has been snowing, and snowing heavily this evening. Moderate to, at times, heavy snow has been reported to have been falling over much of Whiteside, Lee, and Central Ogle Counties.

Snow has been trying to lift northeastward over the Stateline all evening long, but dry air fueled by strong northeasterly winds have eaten away at the snow's northward ascent.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

Farther north in the Rockford Metro, though, it’s been a challenge to get more than just a few flurries thus far. That’s due to a steady flow of dry air into the area courtesy of strong northeasterly winds, which have been routinely sustained at 15 to 20 miles per hour, with gusts of well over 30 miles per hour.

Sustained winds of 15 to 25 miles per hour out of the northeast continue to funnel drier air into our area.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

Gusts in excess of 30 miles per hour have been common over much of the area.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

Eventually, the thought remains that the dry air will eventually be overcome, and snow will still fall over most, if not all of the Stateline. Latest Timecast model projections suggest that the 10:00 to 11:00 window is pegged for the onset of snow in the Rockford Metro.

Timecast now pushes back the onset of the snowfall to closer to 10:00pm for the Rockford Metro.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

Once snow does start, it will continue for a period of several hours. What’s more, the gusty winds will severely reduce visibility areawide.

Light to moderate snow is likely across the region as we pass the midnight hour.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

While a weakening trend in the snow is to be noted as we reach closer to sunrise, there should still be a good amount of light snow occurring over much of the region.

Snow will be much lighter as we get closer to the 5:00 hour Tuesday morning.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

Snow appears likely to wind down fairly quickly thereafter, likely coming as just flurries after sunrise.

Snow will really be tapering off shortly after sunrise.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

The later onset of the snow has no doubt munched away at our accumulation forecast some, but not entirely. It’s our thought that most areas are going to likely be in the 2″ to 5″ range when all is said and done, though a few isolated higher totals remain possible.

As has been suspected all along, the highest snowfall totals are to be found south and southwest of Rockford. Dry air has forced us to lower the accumulation amounts some.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

As has been suspected all along, the highest snowfall totals are to be found south and southwest of Rockford. Dry air has forced us to lower the accumulation amounts some.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

As has been suspected all along, the highest snowfall totals are to be found south and southwest of Rockford. Dry air has forced us to lower the accumulation amounts some.(Mark Henderson, WIFR)

Though the amounts may not be as high as once thought, impacts are still very much to be felt. The gusty winds are already to be blamed for significant blowing and drifting of snow across the entire Stateline, even where it hasn’t been snowing! That’s going to continue to be a major factor worth watching in the coming hours.

Copyright 2021 WIFR. All rights reserved.

Let's block ads! (Why?)

"though" - Google News
January 26, 2021 at 10:01AM
https://ift.tt/36bXwHP

FIRST ALERT WEATHER DAY: Winter storm still on track, though impacts to start later than expected - WIFR
"though" - Google News
https://ift.tt/2FnFft4
https://ift.tt/3dmAmQf

Bagikan Berita Ini